Zosoforum

Questions to be considered:

- What are the likely borders of Israel (i.e likelihood of De Jure annexation and settlement of the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, the Sinai etc.)?
- Will there be a Palestinian state?
- Will there be economic sanctions by the West (US/Eur) on Israel?
- Will there be a large scale Arab/Islamic - Israel/(US?) war?

Important points:

- Israeli Jewish fertility is already > all surrounding Arab groups (inc. obv. Palestinians)
- Israel is extremely densely populated and "Lebensraum" is a concern
- However, Haredim are an increasing proportion of group and despite fanatical/exterminatory Zionism are opposed to military service
- Israel increasingly underperforms in OECD educational metrics and will likely suffer from human capital issues
- The Muslim and Arab world is secularising increasingly fast (very fast TFR declines) - and the bloodshed in Gaza did not provoke a serious response

Most likely scenario is that they keep winning wars, dominate the MENA region, and then like many other empires break apart due to infighting. There are already tensions between liberal and conservative Jews, and either the conservative Jews win and the liberal Jews adapt, or the infighting will be so violent that it might break the empire.

But for the next decades the outlook looks good.

>>1
>Will there be economic sanctions by the West (US/Eur) on Israel?

Idk about the rest of the West but once the boomers die I'd wager the US' love for Israel will finally be done. Certainly the endless blank checks will go away, idk about sanctions though I'd like to hope

My pipe dream is ofc that there is military intervention against them to force them to play nice with Lebanon and the Palestinians, but I'm not naive enough to hope for that.

Ideally Tel Aviv would be their capital and Jerusalem would be an international city, the way Berlin and Vienna were administered in the years immediately after the war. Give America, China, Britain, Iran, France, Egypt, Jordan, and Jolani's Syria some sort of convoluted joint administration. But again, not naive enough to hope.

It should be mentioned that jewish diaspora still possesses significant amount of influence and human capital abroad, and of course, israel has nuclear weapons. So the idea of israel being destroyed through invasion is out of the question.

- What are the likely borders of Israel (i.e likelihood of De Jure annexation and settlement of the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, the Sinai etc.)?
Nowhere, God willing.
- Will there be a Palestinian state?
It'll be some multiethnic Frankenstein protectorate like Bosnia.
- Will there be economic sanctions by the West (US/Eur) on Israel?
Maybe a handful of countries but no coordinated effort.
- Will there be a large scale Arab/Islamic - Israel/(US?) war?
Probably, but I am not sure about the timescale.

>>1
- What are the likely borders of Israel (i.e likelihood of De Jure annexation and settlement of the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, the Sinai etc.)?
De jure annexation of the West Bank is already ongoing. Israel's territorial expansion won't stop until the US yanks its leash, and that's not happening under this administration. Nor whatever Israeli government forms post-Bibi. It's important to understand that the Israeli opposition views settlers/Kahanist tendencies/genocide primarily as an issue of PR and "security." Them being a moral outrage is a secondary concern, if it is one at all.

- Will there be a Palestinian state?
It already exists. Whether it's allowed to function as one is the real question.

- Will there be economic sanctions by the West (US/Eur) on Israel?
There's been a very slow trickle from European countries and elsewhere, but it's going to take much more time and effort than somewhere like South Africa. Which had much less institutional resistance against boycotting, and never fully enmeshed itself into the imperial core like Israel has.

- Will there be a large scale Arab/Islamic - Israel/(US?) war?
Read the news lately? In all seriousness, it's highly unlikely since all the states that fought in 1967 have since become US compradors. Either way, it's a moot point considering US/Israel is losing a war against the Axis of Resistance right now.

There is one bet I'd like to place. If a Palestinian state gets established with Israel's current borders, the first thing Ahmed Sharaa is doing is changing his name back to Al-Jolani.

>>6
But what exactly is the pathway to a viable Palestinian state; US dem victory and pressure?
Yes, Jolani will obviously be eternally sore over the Golan, and Israel, as it is, is an existential threat to Syria (and all Levantine states).
A Turco-Israel war would be a wildcard (but don't really see it happening; Erdo, Fidan are too clever for that).
Haredi pop explosion is a problem, obviously. Demographics is destiny.

>>7
A victory for the Democrats does not make it a given, since the vast majority of Dem politicians are far behind their base when it comes to Israel. It's going to be a bottom-up affair that'll only intensify as the electorate skews younger and our most unpopular presidents outdo each other in support of Israel. Even if recognition of Palestine should be a layup for any Dem, a lot of them are still incapable of going as far as they should. See that recent Drop Site Ro Khanna interview for example.

A Turkey vs. Israel war is out of the question unless the latter starts getting high off its own supply. However, Rutte's recent interview, where he couldn't admit such a war would trigger Article 5, shows just how far they're willing to indulge this delusional saber-rattling.

I wouldn't count on conflict between secular Israelis and Haredim. Because apart from the Satmar types, the latter don't actually have a problem with the Zionist project. It does speak to how unsustainable Israel is without outside support though.

I did my undergraduate dissertation on the rise of Israeli's religious fundamentalist Zionists, but all I can say is that one way or another it will be too close to call what asymptotic point will be reached that decides what the final trajectory here is going to be. I'm more optimistic that Israel won't be sustainable without being propped up from the outside then you'd expect. I think that the elements of social reproduction are going to hollow out the socioeconomic stability of Israel in the most of the cutting edges of its qualitative advantage over the other powers of it's region slowly. A general 'pro-Western bias' exaggerating said edge was obviously present before the current Iran war started, it is undeniable and severe right now. I do not think people will realise the depth of the complexity of Iran's economy as it is until it is too late. Furthermore, I think the Samson option of overrated because being able to strike all of Israel's desalination plants out of existence basically counts as a WMD for free anyways.

>>9
Samson Option was always Israel self-hype sabre-rattling; in any case, to be blunt, the Muslim world has so much biomass that a few nukes will hardly make a difference anyway, and Israel is extremely densely populated - it's far more vulnerable to this kind of thing

>>10
> >>9

> Samson Option was always Israel self-hype sabre-rattling; in any case, to be blunt, the Muslim world has so much biomass that a few nukes will hardly make a difference anyway, and Israel is extremely densely populated - it's far more vulnerable to this kind of thing


I don't disagree on principle but the Muslim world would need a lot of governments to change for this scenario to actualise amongst other things