Zosoforum

Cluster17, a french polling institute, just published a poll for the upcoming presidential election:
Marine Le Pen : 29%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon : 17%
Édouard Philippe : 17%
Raphaël Glucksmann : 11%
Bruno Retailleau : 6,5%
David Lisnard : 4%
François Ruffin : 4%
Dominique Villepin : 3,5%
Éric Zemmour (lol): 3%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan : 2%
Fabien Roussel : 2%

possible candidates that weren't included:
-Gabriel Attal
-Marine Tondelier

Is it really going to be a Melenchon vs Le Pen second round? MLP is going to blaze through him if that happens at this point

This would've been a tolerable matchup for Melenchon even a decade ago, let alone 2, where the RN and the Le Pen name were far more ostracised. But now Le Pen is winning in some polls against even the most milquetoast of centrists

My take is that french politics have veered so far to the right in the last few years that there's simply not an alternate universe where Le Pen doesn't win the election, in spite of her obvious corruption. Bolloré's far-right media offensive, helped by russia and the entity has been extremely successful. Couple that with a Macronist government that has been caving in to the excesses of the right non-stop. Le Pen is going to win, and the milquetoast centrist candidates have lost any credibility that they once might have had. Mélenchon is the only real political alternative to the far-right, but he's also been completely diabolized by everyone, so him winning is unlikely.

I guess a centrist could still win against Le Pen but they can only win with votes from the left, which simply has no reason to trust the center anymore after everything that has happened during Macron's second mandate. On top of that there's a bunch of ego battles between Retailleau, Darmanin, Attal, Lecornu, Philippe and all the other careerists over who gets to take up the mantle of reasonable centrism.

I saw this earlier today. The centrists underperform Melenchon among younger people (vs Le Pen) but Melenchon underperforms hard against older people. France is an old country and old people vote more often, and that's the Melenchon dilemma

Unfortunate, but the coming climate change will solve this, all we need to do is find a way to somehow trick pensioners into parking their cars during the summer.

i am not familiar with french polities but i dont really see how Le Pen is different then say giorgia meloni (AKA take all the potential of anti-immigration movement and than sell out)
AFD in Germany seems like it could win but they are going to have basic anti immigration polices that are not gonna last but at the same time cuck to russia and make Right Wing movements hated in the EU

Well like every other right-wing movement in the world they're going to use anti-immigration hysteria to get votes from the cattle, while just getting rich of EU subventions and corruption. Marine Le Pen has already been indicted for stealing taxpayer money, that's why she almost didn't run. If you want an example of how France under Le Pen would look, look at decades of Orban in Hungary: crackdowns on the opposition, kickbacks and corruption for loyalists, while the wealth gets siphoned off.

>>9 a victorious AfD in Germany would probably not be that russophile unless the very unlikely case that they win an outright majority happens. They need a coalition partner and the only realistic one would be a CDU that's so battered and bruised that they will finally realise the firewall is hurting them more than it's hurting the AfD and the CDU would probably add control of the foreign ministry to the coalition agreement.

>>11
wouldn't BSW be perfect partner to secure majority? tbh any right wing party in Europe is not serous unless it has mechanisms to ensure future parties cant reverse immigration and foreign policies but that doesn't sound plausible in modern day Vassal states of the EU

>>12
BSW won't clear the 5% in a federal election