As of 2026, humanity is likely to be below replacement level, this has never happened before in our history as a species, not even during wars or pandemics, world population will peak at roughly 9 bn around 2056 and then start falling (J. Fernández-Villaverde and P. Norrick)
Many people tend to attribute the global decline in birth rates to factors such as smartphones, feminism, female labor-force participation, infertility caused by pollutants, etc. Some people argue that the economy has nothing to do with TFR decline because poor countries have higher birth rates than wealthy countries and that our poorer ancestors also had many children.
It is indeed true that we have a much better quality of life than our ancestors. We are taller, live longer and healthier lives, and are wealthier than our ancestors. But they also didn't face resource depletion on the scale we do today. Half of the oil that was available before the Industrial Revolution is depleted. Large amounts of easily accessible energy, as well as other materials, have also been depleted.
I wonder to what extent resource depletion has contributed to the decline in TFR.
Many people tend to attribute the global decline in birth rates to factors such as smartphones, feminism, female labor-force participation, infertility caused by pollutants, etc. Some people argue that the economy has nothing to do with TFR decline because poor countries have higher birth rates than wealthy countries and that our poorer ancestors also had many children.
It is indeed true that we have a much better quality of life than our ancestors. We are taller, live longer and healthier lives, and are wealthier than our ancestors. But they also didn't face resource depletion on the scale we do today. Half of the oil that was available before the Industrial Revolution is depleted. Large amounts of easily accessible energy, as well as other materials, have also been depleted.
I wonder to what extent resource depletion has contributed to the decline in TFR.