Since the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, there has been a continuous return of refugees to the country. Using data from UNHCR Flash Reports, I created a chart showing the evolution of refugee flows. The trends have remained surprisingly stable, reaching almost 1.6 million returnees by March 2026. Unfortunately, UNHCR stopped publishing weekly reports in March, switching to what appear to be bimonthly reports. The most recent data shows that, as of May 31, 2026, an estimated 1.67 million Syrians had returned to the country, which is consistent with previous trends.
The majority of these returnees come from Lebanon (40%), Turkey (39%), and Jordan (17%). Iraq and Egypt each account for 2%. Returnees from other countries make up less than 1%, with only 6,772 as of May 2026.
I believe that in the future, European governments will intensify their efforts to repatriate their Syrian refugees. German Chancellor Merz recently stated that the plan is for "80% of Syrians in Germany to return to Syria." Under the voluntary repatriation program that the German government established after the fall of Assad, only 6,000 Syrians have applied to return by 2025, out of the nearly one million living in Germany. If they want to achieve their goal, they will have to take much more agressive measures.
On a personal note, I recently went in Erasmus and met many Turks. I asked most of them what they thought about the Syrians living in Turkey, and without exception, they responded with a xenophobic tirade that would make any far-right politician in Europe blush. When I asked them if they believed the Syrians would return after the end of the civil war, they were very skeptical and said that almost none would come back. The data shows the opposite, as of the approximately 2,900,000 refugees in 2024, almost 700,000 have already returned. There are still many Syrians in Turkey, but I believe the trend is clear.
The majority of these returnees come from Lebanon (40%), Turkey (39%), and Jordan (17%). Iraq and Egypt each account for 2%. Returnees from other countries make up less than 1%, with only 6,772 as of May 2026.
I believe that in the future, European governments will intensify their efforts to repatriate their Syrian refugees. German Chancellor Merz recently stated that the plan is for "80% of Syrians in Germany to return to Syria." Under the voluntary repatriation program that the German government established after the fall of Assad, only 6,000 Syrians have applied to return by 2025, out of the nearly one million living in Germany. If they want to achieve their goal, they will have to take much more agressive measures.
On a personal note, I recently went in Erasmus and met many Turks. I asked most of them what they thought about the Syrians living in Turkey, and without exception, they responded with a xenophobic tirade that would make any far-right politician in Europe blush. When I asked them if they believed the Syrians would return after the end of the civil war, they were very skeptical and said that almost none would come back. The data shows the opposite, as of the approximately 2,900,000 refugees in 2024, almost 700,000 have already returned. There are still many Syrians in Turkey, but I believe the trend is clear.
